Ohio’s 9th District
U.S. House · OH-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 74% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 39%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| OH-9 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%−2.0 | 44.2%+3.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Marcy Kaptur · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Marcy Kaptur | 100.0% | 45,827 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Derek Merrin | 0.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 11.0 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.8 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 9 70%
- Former district 5 30%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated