Massachusetts’s 2nd District
U.S. House · MA-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Other | Republican | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA-2 | 68.4% | 31.4% | 0.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+13.8 | 1.2%+30.1 | 44.2%−44.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 9.0% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
James P. McGovern · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | James P. McGovern | 100.0% |
|---|
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent James P. McGovern
source
Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 29.2 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 37.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated