Michigan’s 9th District

U.S. House · MI-9

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
MI-9	63.0%	35.6%	1.3%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+18.8	54.5%−18.9	1.2%+0.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.2% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

McClain, Lisa · Republican

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Pooley, Ray	100.0%	74,349 votes
Republican primary	McClain, Lisa	100.0%	103,291 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 37.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 27.4 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.