Michigan’s 13th District

U.S. House · MI-13

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 49.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
MI-13	72.5%	23.1%	4.4%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+17.9	44.2%−21.1	1.2%+3.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.8% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Thanedar, Shri · Democrat

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Mckinney, Donavan	51.9%	57,714 votes
Republican primary	Nykoriak, T.P.	100.0%	18,470 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Mckinney, Donavan
source
Other Challenger

Morton, Maurice Gerard

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Nykoriak, T.P.
source

The Democrats won by 44.1 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 49.3 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.