Michigan’s 11th District

U.S. House · MI-11

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
MI-11	63.2%	36.7%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+8.7	44.2%−7.6	1.2%−1.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.8% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Stevens, Haley · Democrat

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Moss, Jeremy	49.5%	73,140 votes
Republican primary	Baker, Ethan	100.0%	49,354 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Moss, Jeremy
source
Other Open seat

Kumar, Anil Dr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Baker, Ethan
source

The Democrats won by 18.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 26.6 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.