Michigan’s 8th District
U.S. House · MI-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-8 | 58.4% | 39.9% | 1.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+3.9 | 44.2%−4.3 | 1.2%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.5% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
McDonald Rivet, Kristen · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | McDonald Rivet, Kristen | 100.0% | 104,231 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Smith, Thomas J. | 50.4% | 31,149 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 6.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 18.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated