Alabama’s 5th District
U.S. House · AL-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| AL-5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+15.0 | 54.5%−13.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.8% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Dale Strong · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Andrew Sneed | 78.4% | 16,688 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Dale Strong | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 90.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 18.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated