Alabama’s 4th District

U.S. House · AL-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 53.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
AL-4	77.0%	23.1%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+32.7	54.5%−31.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.6% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Robert B. Aderholt · Republican

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Amanda N. Pusczek	62.8%	9,648 votes
Republican primary	Robert B. Aderholt	77.6%	72,169 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 97.5 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 53.9 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.