Alabama’s 2nd District
U.S. House · AL-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 58% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| AL-2 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+6.6 | 54.5%−5.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
3 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Figures, Shomari C. · Democrat
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 26.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 2 58%
- Former district 1 31%
- Former district 7 7%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated