New York’s 7th District

U.S. House · NY-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 44.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Other	Republican
NY-7	63.7%	18.3%	18.0%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+9.2	1.2%+17.1	44.2%−26.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	31.5% (± 0.7)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Velazquez, Nydia M. · Democrat

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Claire Valdez	56.1%	37,531 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Challenger

Melvin Rivera
source
Democrat Open seat

Claire Valdez
source
Other Open seat

Ghaznavi, Priscilla Ms.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Democrats won by 40.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 44.1 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.