New York’s 13th District
U.S. House · NY-13
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 62.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-13 | 76.6% | 14.2% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+22.1 | 44.2%−30.0 | 1.2%+7.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 44.9% (± 1.1) |
|---|
Current member
Adriano Espaillat · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Darializa Avila Chevalier | 49.6% | 32,790 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jomo Williams | 0.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 61.9 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 62.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated