New York’s 15th District

U.S. House · NY-15

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 62.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NY-15	75.9%	13.0%	11.1%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+21.4	44.2%−31.3	1.2%+9.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	48.0% (± 0.9)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Ritchie Torres · Democrat

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Ritchie Torres	72.4%	23,531 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Ritchie Torres
source
Other Challenger

Easton, Andre Clement Mr.

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Stylo Sapaskis
source

The Democrats won by 51.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 62.2 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.