New York’s 12th District

U.S. House · NY-12

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 68.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NY-12	80.6%	11.3%	8.1%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+26.1	44.2%−32.9	1.2%+6.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	10.9% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Nadler, Jerrold L · Democrat

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Micah C. Lasher	39.2%	40,106 votes
Republican primary	Caroline Shinkle	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Micah C. Lasher
source
Other Open seat

Negron, Wilneida

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Open seat

Ortiz, Karen

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Caroline Shinkle
source

The Democrats won by 52.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 68.9 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.