Hawaii’s 2nd District

U.S. House · HI-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 44.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
HI-2	68.2%	23.5%	8.3%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+13.7	44.2%−20.7	1.2%+7.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	9.4% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Jill Tokuda · Democrat

Held August 8, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jill Tokuda	91.5%	92,075 votes
Republican primary	Brenton Awa	100.0%	26,290 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 33.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 44.7 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.