Hawaii’s 1st District

U.S. House · HI-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 50.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
HI-1	72.1%	21.3%	6.6%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+17.6	44.2%−23.0	1.2%+5.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.0% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Ed Case · Democrat

Held August 8, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Ed Case	58.5%	63,784 votes
Republican primary	Adriel Lam	100.0%	18,530 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 39.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 50.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.