New York’s 25th District

U.S. House · NY-25

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NY-25	59.7%	32.8%	7.5%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+5.2	44.2%−11.5	1.2%+6.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	8.0% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Joseph D. Morelle · Democrat

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Joseph D. Morelle	63.6%	24,085 votes
Republican primary	Virginia McIntyre	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 15.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 27.0 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.