New York’s 22nd District

U.S. House · NY-22

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NY-22	55.7%	34.1%	10.2%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+1.2	44.2%−10.1	1.2%+9.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.5% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

John Mannion · Democrat

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	John Mannion	0.0%
Republican primary	Kailee Buller	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

John Mannion
source
Other Challenger

Staton, William A Iv

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Kailee Buller
source

The Democrats won by 9.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 21.6 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.