New York’s 24th District

U.S. House · NY-24

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 14%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
NY-24	51.1%	38.6%	10.3%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+6.8	54.5%−15.9	1.2%+9.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.0% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Claudia Tenney · Republican

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Alissa J. Ellman	61.9%	9,933 votes
Republican primary	Claudia Tenney	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Claudia Tenney
source
Democrat Challenger

Alissa J. Ellman
source
Other Challenger

Sloan, Todd

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 22.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.