New York’s 19th District

U.S. House · NY-19

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NY-19	51.1%	37.3%	11.6%
National averageUnited States	54.5%−3.5	44.2%−6.9	1.2%+10.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	5.6% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Josh Riley · Democrat

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Josh Riley	0.0%
Republican primary	Peter K. Oberacker	77.8%	13,582 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 1.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 14.0 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.