New York’s 23rd District
U.S. House · NY-23
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 10%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-23 | 52.7% | 38.9% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+8.4 | 54.5%−15.6 | 1.2%+7.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 2.8% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Nick Langworthy · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Aaron Gies | 72.1% | 13,552 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Nick Langworthy | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 21.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 14.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated