Illinois’s 17th District

U.S. House · IL-17

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
IL-17	60.1%	39.9%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+5.6	44.2%−4.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	8.1% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Eric Sorensen · Democrat

Held March 17, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Eric Sorensen	100.0%	47,743 votes
Republican primary	Dillan S. Vancil	58.4%	19,535 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 8.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 20.2 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.