Kentucky’s 4th District

U.S. House · KY-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
KY-4	62.8%	37.2%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+18.6	54.5%−17.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.5% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Thomas Massie · Republican

Held May 19, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Melissa Strange	72.4%	30,108 votes
Republican primary	Ed Gallrein	54.9%	57,822 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Melissa Strange
source
Other Challenger

Todd, Jeremy Ryan

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Ed Gallrein
source

The Republicans won by 99.2 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 25.6 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.