Kentucky’s 5th District

U.S. House · KY-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 53.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
KY-5	76.7%	23.3%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+32.4	54.5%−31.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	1.1% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Hal Rogers · Republican

Held May 19, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Ned Pillersdorf	0.0%
Republican primary	Hal Rogers	77.4%	81,554 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Hal Rogers

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Challenger

Ned Pillersdorf
source
Republican Open seat

Hal Rogers
source

The Republicans won by 100.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 53.3 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.