Washington’s 9th District
U.S. House · WA-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 52.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| WA-9 | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+21.6 | 44.2%−20.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 8.8% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Current member
Adam Smith · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Adam Smith · Advanced to the general election | 47.2% | 67,095 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Doug Basler · Advanced to the general election | 21.9% | 31,070 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 95.8 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 52.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated