Washington’s 8th District

U.S. House · WA-8

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
WA-8	59.8%	40.3%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+5.2	44.2%−4.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.6% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Kim Schrier · Democrat

Held August 4, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Top-two primary	Kim Schrier · Advanced to the general election	53.8%	102,853 votes
Top-two primary	Spencer Meline · Advanced to the general election	15.9%	30,324 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 8.2 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.5 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.