New York’s 3rd District

U.S. House · NY-3

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NY-3	55.7%	37.6%	6.7%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+1.2	44.2%−6.7	1.2%+5.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	12.0% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Thomas R. Suozzi · Democrat

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Thomas R. Suozzi	79.8%	20,820 votes
Republican primary	Michael J. LiPetri Jr	82.6%	10,898 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 6.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 18.2 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.