New Jersey’s 9th District

U.S. House · NJ-9

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NJ-9	58.1%	41.0%	0.9%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+3.5	44.2%−3.2	1.2%−0.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	35.0% (± 0.6)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Nelida Pou · Democrat

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Nelida Pou	100.0%	27,790 votes
Republican primary	Rosie Pino	51.3%	6,711 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Nelida Pou
source
Republican Challenger

Rosie Pino

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Rosie Pino
source

The Democrats won by 4.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 17.1 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.