New Jersey’s 5th District

U.S. House · NJ-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NJ-5	61.4%	38.5%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+6.9	44.2%−5.7	1.2%−1.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	14.4% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Josh Gottheimer · Democrat

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Josh Gottheimer	100.0%	38,077 votes
Republican primary	Sean Kirrane	100.0%	19,529 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 11.3 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 23.0 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.