Illinois’s 9th District

U.S. House · IL-9

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 46.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
IL-9	73.3%	26.7%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+18.8	44.2%−17.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	10.2% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Schakowsky, Janice D · Democrat

Held March 17, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Daniel Biss	29.4%	38,804 votes
Republican primary	John Elleson	48.9%	7,545 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 36.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 46.7 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.