Illinois’s 4th District
U.S. House · IL-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 36.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IL-4 | 66.1% | 29.2% | 4.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+11.5 | 44.2%−15.0 | 1.2%+3.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 56.4% (± 1.2) |
|---|
Current member
Patty Garcia · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Patty Garcia | 100.0% | 52,616 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Lupe Castillo | 100.0% | 8,336 votes |
| Ed Hershey | 100.0% | 5 votes |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Open seat Patty Garcia
source - Other Open seat
Church, Lindsay
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Open seat
Ed Hershey
source - Other Open seat
Getty, Christopher Roman
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Open seat
Macias, Mayra
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Other Open seat
Sigcho Lopez, Byron
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Republican Open seat Lupe Castillo
source
Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 40.2 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 36.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated