Rhode Island’s 1st District
U.S. House · RI-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 39.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RI-1 | 67.7% | 28.3% | 3.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+13.2 | 44.2%−15.9 | 1.2%+2.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 13.3% (± 0.6) |
|---|
Current member
Gabe Amo · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Gabe Amo | 100.0% | 56,255 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Kellie Keenan | 100.0% | 7,155 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 31.0 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 39.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated