South Carolina’s 5th District

U.S. House · SC-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
SC-5	56.1%	44.0%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+11.8	54.5%−10.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.8% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Norman, Ralph W. Jr. · Republican

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Mallory Dittmer	55.8%	25,428 votes
Republican primary	Wes Climer	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 27.2 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.5 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.