South Carolina’s 4th District

U.S. House · SC-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 13%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
SC-4	56.1%	43.3%	0.7%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+11.8	54.5%−11.2	1.2%−0.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.2% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

William Timmons · Republican

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Courtney McClain	0.0%
Republican primary	William Timmons	65.8%	47,895 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 22.5 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 13.1 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.