Louisiana’s 4th District
U.S. House · LA-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| LA-4 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+17.4 | 54.5%−16.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Johnson, James Michael · Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Johnson, James Michael
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Democrat Challenger Cable, Conrad Roberts
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Gromlich, Matthew
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Heslop, Gordon Brian
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Nichols, Michael
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 88.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 23.3 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 4 85%
- Former district 6 15%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated