Iowa’s 4th District

U.S. House · IA-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
IA-4	60.4%	39.6%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+16.1	54.5%−14.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	5.8% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Feenstra, Randall · Republican

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Dave Dawson	39.1%	11,291 votes
Republican primary	Chris McGowan	100.0%	55,077 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 34.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 20.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.