Maryland’s 8th District
U.S. House · MD-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 67.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD-8 | 83.5% | 16.2% | 0.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+29.0 | 44.2%−28.1 | 1.2%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 13.7% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Current member
Jamie Raskin · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jamie Raskin | 92.7% | 98,179 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Cheryl Riley | 43.2% | 3,495 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 56.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 67.3 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated