Maryland’s 2nd District

U.S. House · MD-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
MD-2	64.9%	35.0%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+10.4	44.2%−9.3	1.2%−1.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.2% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Jr. John "Johnny O" Olszewski · Democrat

Held June 23, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	John "Johnny O" Olszewski, Jr.	84.5%	65,646 votes
Republican primary	Dave Wallace	88.9%	27,136 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 18.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 30.0 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.