Kansas’s 1st District

U.S. House · KS-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
KS-1	63.9%	36.1%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+19.6	54.5%−18.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	10.3% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Tracey Mann · Republican

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Lauren Reinhold	64.1%	25,074 votes
Republican primary	Tracey Mann	81.0%	74,523 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 38.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 27.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.