Kansas’s 4th District

U.S. House · KS-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
KS-4	59.9%	40.1%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+15.6	54.5%−14.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	9.3% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Ron Estes · Republican

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Katy Tyndell	66.1%	27,899 votes
Republican primary	Ron Estes	80.9%	67,464 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Ron Estes
source
Democrat Challenger

Katy Tyndell
source
Other Challenger

Catanese, Paul Vincent

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 30.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.