Michigan’s 5th District

U.S. House · MI-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
MI-5	61.4%	38.6%	0.0%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+17.2	54.5%−15.9	1.2%−1.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.8% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Walberg, Tim · Republican

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Vukasovich, Christian	100.0%	64,178 votes
Republican primary	Walberg, Tim	100.0%	76,989 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 32.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 22.9 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.