California’s 43rd District
U.S. House · CA-43
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 60.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-43 | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+25.5 | 44.2%−24.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 47.3% (± 1.0) |
|---|
Current member
Maxine Waters · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Maxine Waters · Advanced to the general election | 63.8% | 75,693 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Cristian Morales · Advanced to the general election | 16.9% | 20,009 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 49.9 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 60.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated