California’s 36th District

U.S. House · CA-36

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 47.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
CA-36	73.9%	26.1%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+19.4	44.2%−18.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	14.7% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Ted W. Lieu · Democrat

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Top-two primary	Ted W. Lieu · Advanced to the general election	60.9%	142,982 votes
Top-two primary	Houston Brignano · Advanced to the general election	15.3%	35,851 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 37.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 47.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.