Ohio’s 11th District

U.S. House · OH-11

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 69.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
OH-11	84.6%	15.4%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+30.1	44.2%−28.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.7% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Shontel Brown · Democrat

Held May 5, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Shontel Brown	85.5%	70,357 votes
Republican primary	Mike Kirchner	65.6%	6,949 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 58.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 69.2 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.