Ohio’s 12th District
U.S. House · OH-12
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| OH-12 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+17.3 | 54.5%−16.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Troy Balderson · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jerrad Christian | 46.4% | 15,961 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Troy Balderson | 100.0% | 64,907 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 36.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 23.2 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 12 79%
- Former district 6 17%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated