Mississippi’s 4th District

U.S. House · MS-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
MS-4	68.5%	31.5%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+24.3	54.5%−23.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.6% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Mike Ezell · Republican

Held March 10, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jeffrey Hulum III	57.7%	11,046 votes
Republican primary	Mike Ezell	84.1%	39,564 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mike Ezell
source
Democrat Challenger

Jeffrey Hulum III
source
Other Challenger

Carl, Boyanton Lester

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 47.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 37.1 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.