Mississippi’s 1st District

U.S. House · MS-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
MS-1	64.5%	35.5%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+20.3	54.5%−19.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.2% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Trent Kelly · Republican

Held March 10, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Cliff Johnson	63.4%	18,051 votes
Republican primary	Trent Kelly	100.0%	35,490 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 39.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 29.1 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.