Minnesota’s 8th District
U.S. House · MN-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| MN-8 | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+8.9 | 54.5%−7.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 1.5% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Pete Stauber · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Trina Swanson | 77.2% | 54,413 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Pete Stauber | 86.4% | 58,139 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 16.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated