Minnesota’s 5th District

U.S. House · MN-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 60.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
MN-5	80.1%	20.0%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+25.5	44.2%−24.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.3% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Ilhan Omar · Democrat

Held August 11, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Ilhan Omar	80.7%	122,640 votes
Republican primary	John Nagel	52.2%	7,777 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 49.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 60.1 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.