Minnesota’s 6th District
U.S. House · MN-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| MN-6 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+13.2 | 54.5%−12.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 2.6% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Tom Emmer · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Doug Chapin | 100.0% | 48,394 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Tom Emmer | 80.9% | 53,087 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 25.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated