Minnesota’s 7th District

U.S. House · MN-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
MN-7	65.2%	34.8%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+21.0	54.5%−19.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.3% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Michelle Fischbach · Republican

Held August 11, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Erik Osberg	65.7%	27,758 votes
Republican primary	Michelle Fischbach	100.0%	69,436 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 41.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 30.4 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.